In terms of inventory, as of March 3, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports of China was 14000.56 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.227 million tons; The average daily port clearance was 3,217,700 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 24,800 tons. The number of ships in port is 74, 18 less than last week. Steel mills in China imported iron ore inventory of 92,535,600 tons, week on week increased by 115.84 tons. This week, the operating rate of steel mills increased, and the profits of steel mills also recovered. With the social resumption of work, the purchasing demand of steel mills was released, the logistics situation was improved, the daily port opening increased, the number of ships in port declined, and the port inventory stopped rising and fell. With the gradual release of downstream steel demand and the improvement of steel mill operation, the subsequent port inventory may still decline, and we still need to pay more attention to the changes of port iron ore inventory next week.
On the supply side, as of February 27, the total volume of global iron ore shipments was 28.895 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 904,000 tons; Australia Brazil Port 19 iron ore shipment total 23.929 million tons, 896,000 tons more than the previous month. Australia shipped 18.013 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 411,000 tons, among which 15.551 million tons was shipped from Australia to China, a month-on-month increase of 154,000 tons. Brazil shipped 5.916 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 485,000 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil rose slightly this week, spot prices have been running at higher levels recently, overseas miners are more eager to ship, port inventories are high, and iron ore supply is expected to be strong next week.
On the demand side, as of March 3, the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills 81.07%, an increase of 0.09% compared with last week; The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 87.15%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.18%; Steel mill profit rate of 42.86%, an increase of 3.9%; The average daily output of molten iron was 2,343,600 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2,600 tons. At present, the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mill is 2,855,000 tons, which is 0.23 million tons less than the previous month. This week, although the steel plant operating rate, daily iron flow rate to maintain the growth trend, but the extent of almost nothing. After the downstream steel prices rose, the profit situation of steel mills improved, so the willingness of steel mills to start construction increased. Although the downstream steel demand did not appear a one-time significant release, but the market generally believes that the direction of gradually improving demand will not change, iron ore demand release will continue, is expected to maintain the status quo next week iron ore demand release.
Scrap, scrap prices rose slightly this week, mainly strong operation. This week the steel mill profit recovery, so the purchase demand has been released, but after the resumption of work scrap market also gradually resumed transactions, supply improved, so scrap price space limited, scrap market is expected next week or a small shock operation.
To sum up, iron ore inventory of steel mills is low, superposition steel mills resume production, “gold, silver and silver four” traditional peak season begins, steel mill profits are expected to continue to improve, replenishment operation will continue to support the upward price of iron ore. However, if the release of downstream steel demand lags behind, the performance of the finished material is not as expected, the iron ore market may fluctuate, and this week’s overseas shipment growth, port inventory is high, iron ore supply is strong, limit the upward movement of iron ore prices, iron ore is expected to rise and then fall next week, a narrow range of volatility. Later pay attention to the production of steel mills and the actual demand of the downstream end of the finished material.
Post time: Mar-06-2023